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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$285,160 Vol.
45%
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$433,543 Vol.
39%
7%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$66,726 Vol.
4%
3%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$71,484 Vol.
3%
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$47,636 Vol.
2%
2%
Merz - German Chancellor
$58,628 Vol.
2%
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$52,964 Vol.
1%
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$48,570 Vol.
<1%
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$82,187 Vol.
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$53,348 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$63,787 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$49,594 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$60,081 Vol.
<1%
1%
Trump - USA President
$53,343 Vol.
<1%
Putin - Russia President
$48,899 Vol.
<1%
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,078 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$45,751 Vol.
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$48,499 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$41,835 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$51,189 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$54,045 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$45,540 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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