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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$376,835 Vol.
52%
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$600,623 Vol.
38%
3%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$96,495 Vol.
5%
Lecornu - France PM
$68,014 Vol.
2%
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$76,092 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$90,043 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$84,232 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$88,935 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$111,962 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$100,342 Vol.
<1%
Putin - Russia President
$80,035 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$89,735 Vol.
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$73,121 Vol.
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$75,227 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$74,060 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$91,774 Vol.
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$77,530 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$78,035 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$74,516 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$84,355 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$67,608 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$84,735 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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