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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Economy Vol. $524,147 50 traders

Nov 30

Dec 31, 2026

$524,147 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
Below 4.8%
$57,509 Vol.
69% 3%
Below 4.7%
$26,797 Vol.
44% 6%
Below 4.6%
$36,691 Vol.
27%
Below 4.5%
$33,028 Vol.
13% 3%
Below 4.4%
$28,107 Vol.
11% 1%
Below 4.3%
$10,146 Vol.
8% 1%
Below 4.2%
$7,242 Vol.
5%
Below 4.1%
$12,828 Vol.
4% 1%
Below 3.9%
$58,658 Vol.
3%
Below 3.8%
$66,494 Vol.
4%
Below 3.7%
$39,179 Vol.
2%
Below 3.6%
$13,345 Vol.
3%
Below 3.5%
$43,997 Vol.
2%
Below 3.0%
$8,097 Vol.
2%
Below 2.0%
$5,123 Vol.
2%
Below 1.0%
$41,568 Vol.
2%
Below 4.0%
$31,759 Vol.
100%
Below 4.9%
$3,579 Vol.
100% 4%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that...

Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025