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Iran predictions & odds

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 16

99%

Yes99%No1%

October 17

97%

Yes97%No3%

$14M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 18

96%

Yes96%No4%

October 21

94%

Yes94%No7%

$35M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

59%

Yes59%No42%

December 31

35%

Yes35%No65%

$41M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$74M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement

94%

Yes94%No6%

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate

3%

Yes3%No97%

$656K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$3M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 2027

25%

Yes25%No76%

December 31

12%

Yes12%No89%

$27M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$15M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31

14%

Yes14%No87%

November 30

10%

Yes10%No91%

$17M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

31%

Yes31%No70%

November 30

22%

Yes22%No79%

$2M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 31

30%

Yes30%No71%

November 30

26%

Yes26%No75%

$416K Vol.

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