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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$17,026,673 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
October 31
$1,296,742 Vol.
4%
1%
November 30
$5,358 Vol.
10%
1%
December 31
$1,752,240 Vol.
14%
2%
March 31
$330,325 Vol.
0%
April 30
$1,651,617 Vol.
0%
May 31
$1,339,221 Vol.
0%
June 15
$221,114 Vol.
0%
June 22
$129,291 Vol.
0%
June 30
$1,218,248 Vol.
0%
July 31
$1,443,324 Vol.
0%
August 31
$2,558,816 Vol.
0%
September 15
$831,136 Vol.
0%
September 30
$4,249,240 Vol.
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has be... This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730- No recent trades