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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$241,836 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
Anthropic
$5,356 Vol.
49%
3%
OpenAI
$49,331 Vol.
11%
2%
Meta
$27,123 Vol.
11%
1%
xAI
$11,694 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$4,718 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$6,593 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$26,363 Vol.
3%
Microsoft
$5,783 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$8,548 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$15,296 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$13,508 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$6,444 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$4,800 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$9,957 Vol.
2%
Google
$46,321 Vol.
100%
74%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market i... This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lmarena.ai/- No recent trades