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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$37,251,648 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
October 31
$9,991,437 Vol.
78%
21%
November 2
$1,751,663 Vol.
80%
17%
November 3
$356,501 Vol.
6%
November 5
$134,266 Vol.
4%
November 6
$100,811 Vol.
3%
November 7
$78,651 Vol.
4%
September 20
$556,624 Vol.
100%
3%
September 25
$734,157 Vol.
100%
1%
September 30
$2,452,453 Vol.
100%
4%
October 5
$135,262 Vol.
100%
October 7
$523,978 Vol.
100%
October 9
$344,932 Vol.
100%
1%
October 12
$1,988,650 Vol.
100%
3%
October 15
$2,116,266 Vol.
100%
3%
October 16
$428,264 Vol.
100%
2%
October 17
$902,788 Vol.
100%
4%
October 18
$656,634 Vol.
100%
3%
October 22
$3,862,530 Vol.
100%
October 24
$1,883,263 Vol.
100%
October 28
$1,886,905 Vol.
100%
1%
November 4
$855,102 Vol.
0%
93%
November 8
$1,556,825 Vol.
0%
72%
November 15
$1,096,133 Vol.
0%
51%
November 22
$352,119 Vol.
0%
40%
November 30
$1,264,392 Vol.
0%
33%
December 31
$1,241,044 Vol.
0%
25%
Rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as... This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
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