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U.S. x Iran predictions & odds

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

73%

Yes73%No28%

December 31

44%

Yes44%No56%

$51M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$79M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

14%

Yes14%No86%

November 30

6%

Yes6%No94%

$22M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

43%

Yes43%No57%

November 30, 2026

23%

Yes23%No78%

$2M Vol.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

December 31

82%

Yes82%No19%

November 30

65%

Yes65%No36%

$519K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

40%

Yes40%No60%

November 30

18%

Yes18%No83%

$4M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

4%

Yes4%No96%

$77M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

14%

Yes14%No86%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

14%

Yes14%No87%

$2M Vol.