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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

66%

Yes66%No35%

No change

32%

Yes32%No69%

$14M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

November 2

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$41M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

71%

Yes71%No30%

December 31

44%

Yes44%No56%

$48M Vol.

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 5

97%

Yes97%No3%

November 6

93%

Yes93%No7%

$625K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$78M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

50%

chance

Yes

No

$1M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$14M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)

44

95%

Yes95%No5%

45

4%

Yes4%No96%

$884K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

37%

Yes37%No63%

November 30

22%

Yes22%No78%

$4M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

92%

Yes92%No8%

Delcy Rodríguez

8%

Yes8%No93%

$100M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$29M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 31

22%

Yes22%No78%

January 31

17%

Yes17%No83%

$1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

71%

Yes71%No30%

November 30, 2027

68%

Yes68%No32%

$10M Vol.

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