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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$4.6MVol. 29 oct Fed

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

7%

Chance

Yes7¢ No93¢
$21.4MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

Chance

Yes17¢ No84¢
$66.5MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 24 0% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No
18 more
$28.7MVol. 1 jan Iran

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$956.9KVol. 10 dec Fed

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%

Chance

Yes7¢ No94¢
$26.0MVol. 1 jan Reza Pahlavi

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Inflation 40+ times 0% Yes No
Inflation 20+ times 0% Yes No
20 more
$143.0KVol. 17 sept Fed