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When will Gemini Carbon be released?
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November 2–November 8
$21,069 Vol.
2%
4%
November 9–November 15
$95,283 Vol.
81%
2%
November 16–November 22
$21,790 Vol.
11%
November 23–November 29
$9,167 Vol.
2%
1%
November 30–December 6
$6,703 Vol.
2%
December 7–December 13
$4,172 Vol.
<1%
December 14–December 20
$9,110 Vol.
<1%
December 21–December 27
$968 Vol.
<1%
December 28–January 3
$1,834 Vol.
<1%
No release by January 3
$4,184 Vol.
<1%
Prior to November 2
$3,349 Vol.
0%
Rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.
A qualifying model must be a... On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 28, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
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