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Gemini Carbon released on...?
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November 5
$4,353 Vol.
<1%
1%
November 6
$3,680 Vol.
<1%
1%
November 7
$2,013 Vol.
<1%
November 8
$3,337 Vol.
<1%
November 9
$8,377 Vol.
2%
14%
November 10
$53,340 Vol.
23%
15%
November 11
$23,392 Vol.
42%
33%
November 12
$4,112 Vol.
10%
5%
November 13
$5,296 Vol.
2%
2%
November 14
$4,283 Vol.
1%
1%
November 15
$2,360 Vol.
<1%
November 16
$1,478 Vol.
<1%
1%
November 17
$4,783 Vol.
1%
1%
November 18
$2,360 Vol.
1%
2%
November 19
$1,210 Vol.
3%
2%
November 20
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
4%
November 21
$2,858 Vol.
<1%
November 22
$1,110 Vol.
<1%
November 23
$1,686 Vol.
2%
November 24
$1,398 Vol.
<1%
3%
November 25
$1,783 Vol.
<1%
2%
November 26
$1,661 Vol.
<1%
November 27
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
November 28
$931 Vol.
<1%
November 29
$654 Vol.
<1%
November 30
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
No release by November 30
$13,891 Vol.
1%
3%
On or prior to October 31
$597 Vol.
0%
4%
November 1
$551 Vol.
0%
November 2
$1,052 Vol.
0%
November 3
$3,069 Vol.
0%
3%
November 4
$4,592 Vol.
0%
2%
Rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.
A qualifying model must be a... On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
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