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Closest Senate Race?
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Mississippi
$23,447 Vol.
93%
3%
Alaska
$14,975 Vol.
7%
4%
Louisiana
$7,205 Vol.
<1%
Montana
$1,659 Vol.
<1%
Michigan
$3,191 Vol.
<1%
Florida (Special)
$5,067 Vol.
<1%
Maine
$5,339 Vol.
<1%
Kansas
$16,486 Vol.
<1%
South Carolina
$7,827 Vol.
<1%
Texas
$7,551 Vol.
<1%
Nebraska
$3,309 Vol.
<1%
Ohio (Special)
$3,277 Vol.
<1%
South Dakota
$2,108 Vol.
<1%
Tennessee
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
Minnesota
$2,227 Vol.
<1%
Iowa
$9,658 Vol.
<1%
Kentucky
$805 Vol.
<1%
Arkansas
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
Colorado
$654 Vol.
<1%
New Mexico
$649 Vol.
<1%
Georgia
$620 Vol.
<1%
Virginia
$283 Vol.
<1%
North Carolina
$627 Vol.
<1%
New Hampshire
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
Alabama
$289 Vol.
<1%
Delaware
$289 Vol.
<1%
Idaho
$1,204 Vol.
<1%
Illinois
$289 Vol.
<1%
Massachusetts
$289 Vol.
<1%
New Jersey
$289 Vol.
<1%
Oklahoma
$289 Vol.
<1%
Oregon
$289 Vol.
<1%
Rhode Island
$289 Vol.
<1%
West Virginia
$286 Vol.
<1%
Wyoming
$343 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v... The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 6, 2026, 12:22 PM ET
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