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Chance
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
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Outcomes
9↑ 1510 Resolved
100%
▲ 14
↑ 1520
>99%
▲ 31
↑ 1530
33%
▲ 11
↑ 1540
22%
▲ 1
↑ 1500 Resolved
100%
▲ 5
↑ 1550
19%
▲ 8
↑ 1600
6%
↑ 1650
3%
▼ 1
↑ 1700
3%
Recent trades
- No recent trades
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
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